Digital adoption is the silver lining in the COVID-19 dark cloud. As a result of COVID-19 lockdowns across the planet, there is a clear shift towards operating through digital means. From first world to remotest corner of the third world, all are embracing digital in an unprecedented manner. Though it is not the time to cheer, this is what digital advocates frantically tried for decades.
Digitally dependent new world order
Widespread network coverage and mobile phone ownership across all continents have created a conducive environment for online services take up during the lockdown. This unprecedented digital adoption in the early stage of 4th industrial revolution fuels it to supervene even faster. Hence post-pandemic new world order will be characterised by accelerated digital transformation by every single government and more and more citizens with digital lifestyles. So a new and widespread digital eco systems connecting citizens, governments and enterprise of all scale, though may not be very robust will emerge in the immediate post-pandemic period. This will create connected and inter-dependent virtual value chains from the remotest village in the third world to mega cities in the first world. What all this means is that post-pandemic new world order would be more digitally dependent.
Mistrust among nations
It also appears that the world, particularly the powerful nations have
become more apprehensive about each other. Conspiracy theorists who
blame China and vice versa for inventing a biological weapon to cripple
economies have not been ridiculed by seers. Social media reported
Japanese Nobel laureate Professor Tasuku Honjo’s claim of coronavirus
being a manufactured biological weapon by Chinese establishment.
Government of Japan introduced incentives to move manufacturing out of
China while USA was indicating to follow suit. Indian television
channels were going public accusing China of spreading the virus while
brutally leveraging the crisis to buy and store oil and maze in volumes
and actively picking up equities around the world. A German tabloid
demanded Euro 150 billion compensation from China as damages. All these
are signs of the mistrust amongst powerful nations and will continue to
haunt the post-pandemic era.
Another notable phenomenon is the rise of religious intolerance and
extremism. When vast scientific advancements fail to solve problems such
as the coronavirus pandemic or bush fires in Australia, fanatics have
the advantage to ridicule science and radicalise tech savvy followers
who could be mobilised for destructive purposes in the digital domain.
Threat of a digital COVID-19
The use of force against autocracies in the Middle East versus taking
mighty China on in a conventional war using air, sea and ground forces
would be a completely different ball game and a fiercely dangerous one.
Hence digital would be the most likely theatre of cold war in the
future. Weakening enemy digital capabilities and disrupting digital
value chains will be strategic weapons in more and more digitally
dependent post-pandemic world.
Terrorist outfits would find digitally dependent governments and
e-commerce eco systems as attractive targets for offensive disruptions.
Ongoing pandemic has given them a good sense as to what level of
destruction they could create if they have a digital COVID-19 at their
disposal.
Lately computer viruses have taken the backseat as ransomware has come
to the fore. Ransomware attacks have skyrocketed 148% during the height
of COVID-19 crisis in March, compared to baseline levels in February, as
corporations shift to remote work according to the sources of
information security companies. More and more successful ransomware
attacks and earnings from them have tremendously motivated cyber
criminals to innovate more sophisticated attacks. As a result, more
ransomware war lords are emerging in the dark web. Cyber criminals would
be busy trying to invent a digital equivalent of coronavirus which can
rapidly spread from one mission critical system to another in order to
claim massive bail out ransoms. This is the most probable threat that is
imminent in immediate post-pandemic period.
If a digital equivalent of coronavirus starts to spread rapidly across
global mission critical digital infrastructure such as nuclear power
plants, nuclear warfare, space stations, healthcare systems, air traffic
control systems, telecommunication networks, power generation and
distribution systems, water and reservoir management systems,
immigration and airline reservation systems, customs, fiscal and revenue
collection systems, banking, capital markets and credit Information
platforms, citizen databases and identity platforms, etc., it could
cause a colossal and probably an irretrievable damage.
Dealing with a digital pandemic
World leaders and policy makers ought to pay attention to this risk and
prepare the planet with mitigation strategies and measures to deal with
it. COVID-19 was an example where the world leaders failed to act
collectively for a swift response. Institutions which were established
to provide the leadership miserably failed. WHO could not take proactive
measures to avoid the spread of the virus across borders and the need
for having accountable and competent leaders to run global agencies was
highlighted. UN has been demonstrating a pitiful role of an observer.
United Nations does not have a focused outfit for combatting global
cybercrimes and a meagre sub program under UN office on Drug and Crime
(UNODC) which too depends on the generosity of only five countries.
Interpol on the other hand plays more active in global cybercrime
combating. European commission’s Budapest Convention on Cybercrime is
the first international treaty set out to pursue a common criminal
policy against cybercrime, of which Sri Lanka too is a signatory.
However, there is no global institution with an adequate mandate and
capacity to provide the leadership to combat a COVID-19-like digital
pandemic.
Way forward
World has to be ready for a possible digital catastrophe similar to
COVID-19 pandemic sooner than later. COVID-19 has given cyber criminals
an exciting use case in the biological world to emulate. COVID-19 has
opened up the eyes of cyber criminals for new possibilities of large
scale destruction and pointers to new ransom making opportunities.
Global leaders have to pay attention to this new reality and the
imminent threat. Policy makers should focus on creating a global
institution with a focused mandate to take the leadership in governing
global cyber affairs, setting policies and strategies to make global
digital eco systems are robust, safer, efficient and fairer place for
all countries and equipped with necessary resources.
Having witnessed the miserable failure of WHO and UN in managing
COVID-19 pandemic, the design of the new institutions should be done in
such a way that the leaders of these institutes are held accountable for
failures of executing its mandate. This is not a new area of science or
expertise but it is yet to be organised as a collective global effort
when bracing for a possible digital pandemic. Sri Lanka has the
opportunity to be a catalyst and lead the shaping of this new digital
paradigm.
(The writer is an engineer by profession and former CEO of ICTA.)
Leave a Reply